Oil and climate change

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has the responsibility of collecting information on climate change and presenting it to policy makers. This has a big impact on energy policy, particularly relating to the use of fossil fuels and release of greenhouse gases. The 5th IPCC report was recently published and it makes some bold statements about carbon dioxide and global warming. At the very start of the report it states that:

"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia." 

IPCC, Summary For Policy Makers, 2013, page 2

The report then goes onto make statements about the drivers of climate change stating that "The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750" (IPCC, page 11). In addition to this it says that it is "extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming" (IPCC, page 15). This is largely based on research into climate forcing, research from Hohne et al 2011 demonstrated that the observed global warming could not have been produced by natural climate forcing: it requires the additional anthropogenic CO2 to produced observed changes. This is supported by many other research groups such as the Tyndall Centre and the Met Office. Finally the report goes on to warn policy makers about the effects on carrying on with business as usual. 

"Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions."

IPCC, Summary For Policy Makers 2013, page 17

The recommendations from the IPCC, which represents many climate change research groups, is that is we want to reduce the rate of global warming: we have to reduce carbon emissions. Research into the impacts of global tipping points suggests that changing atmospheric composition is a major driver of biodiversity and ecosystem change, even if the impact is gradual rather than abrupt change (Brook et al 2013, Trends in Ecology and Evolution). Therefore, to reduce the impact on biodiversity, climate change and ecosystems we should reduce CO2 emissions. In 2010 32% of global energy supply came from oil, even though this has reduced from 1973 where 45% came from oil, it is still a hugely substantial figure (IEA, Energy Statistics, 2012). So despite extremely convincing evidence about the impact of CO2 emission from oil, it could be several decades before we see a significant reduction in global oil production.   

The Global Energy Crisis - Demystifying the IPCC

If you mention the acronym ‘IPCC’ in general conversation, it is no surprise when the response is just a quizzical expression. This is a little concerning when it is one of the key sources for information on climate change.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published its Fifth Assessment Report, I attended a discussion panel about the report at the House of Commons on the October 15^th 2013. Chaired by Lord Oxburgh and sponsored by the Royal Society, the event had a panel of six professors who are experts in different areas of climatology. I am going to look at the misconceptions about the IPCC, a few keys ideas from the fifth report and why it is so incredibly important when thinking about energy.

Event Speakers:

• The drivers of climate change - Professor John Mitchel (Met Office)
• Climate sensitivity: Professor Keith Shine (University of Reading)
• Modelling the climate: Professor Corinne Le Quere (Tyndall Centre)
• The potential effects of ‘business as usual’: Professor Sir Brian Hoskins (Imperial College)
• Reliability of modelling and building better models: Professor Tim Palmer (Oxford University)
• Extreme weather: Professor Stephen Belcher  (University of Reading)

So firstly, what are the misconceptions about the IPCC? Professor Tim Palmer made a very concise comment about the aims of the IPCC: that it is a summary of the peer reviewed literature, it aims to be inform not speculative. He also stated that it reflects the “lack of consensus, in many different areas of research, on climate change”. It isn't the duty of the IPCC to convince people about climate change which leaves me wondering exactly whose responsibility it is.

A significant part of the panel discussions focused on climate modelling and this brought forward some crucial information. Models which only use natural factors underestimate the rise in temperature which we have observed. If the anthropogenic factors are included (CO2 emissions) the models correlate more closely with the observed value (Le Quere et al 2013). Leading to the conclusion that is “extremely like” (over 95% statistically speaking) that human influence has been a dominant cause of observed warming for since the 20^th century. 

So it seems unequivocal that anthropogenic sources are contributing to climate change; the issue with convincing people of this is the uncertainties that still exist in prediction modelling (Palmer et al 2011) Palmer argues that without bigger software, capable of handling more data and processing more variable, we cannot make more accurate predictions. Therefore may not be able to make more convincing arguments about climate change.

When discussing the future of energy supply, it is essential to have an awareness of climate change because of how it is driving policy and affecting businesses. Professor Stephen Belcher from the Hadley Centre stated that the heat wave of 2003, could become ‘normal’ by 2040 and ‘colder than average’ by 2080. (Belcher et al 2013) There may still be communication difficulties between scientists and the public, but the facts are becoming more and more difficult to dispute.

The full report is available here (IPCC Fifth Assessmen Report 2013) If you are planning to tackle the whole publication, make sure you've got a decent cup of tea beside you!